BBC Climate Change Experiment.

[Wolfee]

Exactly! They should have kept their mouths shut

Again as to the other part,mea culpa,mea culpa, I was wrong.

[ZephyrZodiac]

Well, there were so many roman emperors and some were very obscure!

[Gus Smedstad]

http://www.michaelcrichton.com/speeches/complexity/complexity.html

In the end, I set the book aside, and wrote Prey instead.

Which is one of the worst-researched SF books I've ever had the displeasure to read.  In it, Crichton demonstrates absolute ignorance about programming as a profession ("40 year olds are too old to program"), flocking ("it won't get us as long as we run around in circles!"), and nanotechnology (a described "nano-part" masses roughly the same as a #6 screw).  It's also a terrible book, but that's a different issue.

His talk is full of all sorts of crap.  The time he spends talking about the complexity of the human body is so much filler.  It doesn't have any point other than to state the obvious, which is that it's complex.

Because he's said things in the past that I've known to be false, I'm dubious about his Chernobyl research.  Maybe it's true.  I'd like it to be true.  I'm pro-nuclear power myself, and it's just plain humanitarian to hope the effects have been overstated.  But I don't trust Crichton to be correct and honest about anything involving research.

Certainly what he says about population problems smells like crap to me.  On a global scale, it's certainly fairly complex, and there are built-in negative feedback mechanisms in wealthy countries.  Yet there are definitely nations that are running into Malthusian scenarios.  If Crichton knew anything about Rwanda or Haiti, maybe he wouldn't be so smug.

Should we have been shooting the predators in Yellowstone?  No.  Am I skeptical about the global warming claims?  Yes.  Do I think the Environmental movement is full of people who don't know much about science?  Yes.  But I still don't think much of Crichton's talk.

 - Gus

[ZephyrZodiac]

Well, who did he write Jurassic Park for?  Not intellectuals who might actually know something about prehistoric life, I would think!

[Gus Smedstad]

Well, who did he write Jurassic Park for?  Not intellectuals who might actually know something about prehistoric life, I would think!

That's true.  As I said, whether it's an entertaining book or movie is a independent issue of whether it's well researched, though frequently good research helps.  Here, Crichton isn't writing for entertainment purposes, he's making claims.  So it matters whether or not he's full of crap far more than if he's writing a thriller.

 - Gus

[ZephyrZodiac]

You're right, and if he's expounding on "green" issues, one needs to know which side of the political fence he's one, agenda or no agenda!  I'm sure a certain US president would have denied having a "personal agenda" when he refused to sign up to a certain agreement!

[ZiggyDoodle]

I'm sure a certain US president would have denied having a "personal agenda" when he refused to sign up to a certain agreement!

Are you speaking of Bill Clinton, who refused to submit the Kyoto Protocol to the U. S. Senate for approval while he was still in office?

[ZephyrZodiac]

Well, I suppose both of them, really.

[ZiggyDoodle]

Well, I don't think Bill Clinton's "personal agenda" at the time had much to do with greenhouse gases....

[Sandilou]

I downloaded the BBC stuff...and then I got really suspicious and paranoid.  Reason being - the BBC program kept trying to access the internet, wanting to send back data - but what data?  My Spysweeper system flagged it a red High Risk connection.    What if they're just browsing through my files and sending my info everywhere?  And why should the BBC run their stuff on my pc for free?  Why don't they reduce my licence fee as an incentive for me running their program? They don't help pay for my broadband. Trust them to come up with a cheapskate way to launch an unreliable experiment.

File deleted - and that wasn't as easy to do as you'd think!   

[ZiggyDoodle]

Even though every single night there were air raids and whole families being wiped out during the Blitz, it was still considered more important to have people thinking positively than worrying that they might be next!

You know, ZZ, in the numbing days following 9/11, when we were waiting for the other "shoe" to drop here, I often thought of the extraordinary bravery of the Brits during the Bliz.  Helped keep my head together.

[ZephyrZodiac]

Well, I think knowing our country was not alone probably helped them then, and the same would have been the case after 9/11.

I downloaded the BBC stuff...and then I got really suspicious and paranoid.  Reason being - the BBC program kept trying to access the internet, wanting to send back data - but what data?  My Spysweeper system flagged it a red High Risk connection.    What if they're just browsing through my files and sending my info everywhere?  And why should the BBC run their stuff on my pc for free?  Why don't they reduce my licence fee as an incentive for me running their program? They don't help pay for my broadband. Trust them to come up with a cheapskate way to launch an unreliable experiment.

File deleted - and that wasn't as easy to do as you'd think! 

I agree, I had quite a time deleting it too!  I'm afraid they want to stop and consider before asking people to load and run a program to "run in the background" which then takes over your CPU and runs it at 100%!  Methinks they didn't testrun it on an ordinary home PC!

[LauraW]

I think it is a good idea to read various views. However, do not forget that every reputable scientist out there agrees global warming is occurring on our planet and that it is affected by pollution and CO2 output from the burning of fossil fuels. Please go out there and read some papers by real scientists.

I read Crichton's novel and I enjoyed it as a novel. It also spurred me to read some of his resources. However, many of those resources were funded by OIL and ENERGY companies or by government agencies whose agenda was to support the oil and energy agencies.

I have a master's degree in geology and my thesis involved a climatic study. I know there are cyclic climate changes that have nothing to do with global warming...and the scientists who study climatic changes know this too. They have already calculated sunspots and various other affects into their calculations.  I do not think the increased hurricanes in Florida have anything to do directly with global warming...they are simply a 20 year cycle that has always occurred in the Atlantic hurricanes. But I cannot say for certain that the affects of global warming won't affect the intensity or duration of this cycle.

Unfortunately for us, climatic data is only available for the last 150 years and much of that time it is very spotty and not collected in many locations. However, while global warming may not have the effects you see in the movies, it will certainly have some affects on us in more subtle ways and if we are not careful, it could get worse. So please...read Crichton with a critical eye...and read the scientific papers too before you come to any conclusions. I had a great deal of respect for Crichton as a novelist but when he started traveling and meeting with government officials and speaking out as if he were an expert, my opinions changed somewhat. I do think he has an agenda...in spite of what he says.  I tend to trust BBC myself because I think they are not as 'controlled' by the interests of big business and government as other media outlets. I am going to present a film called Global Warming: The Science and the Signs, next week at a public forum. It is a PBS film and I am looking foward to seeing the reaction from people in my community. I live in Florida and I think people here are eager to learn more.

[laeshanin]

Well, it's good that there sems to be a debate as to whether the BBC have some other agenda regarding this programme, but from what I understand the scientist who developed it spent some time (years) making certain it only did what it was supposed to. And that is try to build an accurate forecast model that they can use reliably for weather. I've had a look at the site and most people seem to be happy enough, and there is no lag on my pc so I'm not certain why there is on other folks.  Sorry.

As for global warming, even if you take into account all of the factors that LauraW put forward, there has been such a rapid increase in mean temperature levels they are unable to account for it. Having done some research and watched one or two documentaries (I know I'm a biased greenie) it would seem that there is a correlation between the start of the industrial revolution (hey, knew us Brits were good for something!) and said rise in global temperature. Good old green house gases. Did any of you know that the glaciers in Antartica have decreased to such an extent that they can now get ruddy great ships into places where it was just ice plate? Fifty kilometres in as many years, I believe... I'm sorry, that's too scary for my feeble little self.

[ZephyrZodiac]

Maybe the problem with installing has something to do with not closing McAfee, so maybe when I'm not on the net I'll try again.