Chance Cards: A Quick Gambler's Guide

[Ellatrue]

Has anyone yet done an analysis for the new Seasons and Free Time careers? It would be useful to know which cards are not worth taking at all, and carry a risk of firing/loss of a skill point.

[Kyna]

Check the first post, Pes updated it to include the Seasons careers about a year ago.

But yes, I would like to see the chances for the Free Time careers and hobbies.

I noticed that my sims (including a teen) are getting chance cards while at work/school based on their hobbies.  I had one where I ignored the work chance card, and they immediately got a hobby one.

[J. M. Pescado]

Such impatience. Can't I get to PLAY the damn thing first? In Free Time, odds are far less important because of the 80% chance card perk, meaning ANY option you choose is favorable and it strictly comes down to gambling for the best payout, even if the odds were formerly shit.

[Karen]

So that 80% chance card perk really does what they claim?  I was wondering about that.... You're right, that's really going to be boring to play.

Karen

EDIT:  I would love to see a hack that put some randomization (or at least uncertainty) into it.  Let's say, 80% chance of positive outcome if Sim is in gold asp or above, otherwise 80% chance of negative outcome.  Or a hack that lowered the chance to 50% (or whatever).  Something along those lines.

[J. M. Pescado]

So that 80% chance card perk really does what they claim?  I was wondering about that.... You're right, that's really going to be boring to play.

I haven't checked it, so I'm just working from the blurb at face value. If anyone reports that it doesn't match up, I might investigate it.

EDIT:  I would love to see a hack that put some randomization (or at least uncertainty) into it.  Let's say, 80% chance of positive outcome if Sim is in gold asp or above, otherwise 80% chance of negative outcome.  Or a hack that lowered the chance to 50% (or whatever).  Something along those lines.

An 80% chance of success means you are still wrong more than half the time, by the 50-90 rule.

[Berney]

Forgive me for my incompetence, but what is the 50-90 rule?

[J. M. Pescado]

Forgive me for my incompetence, but what is the 50-90 rule?

The 50-90 rule states that in a situation with a 50% chance of success, there is a 90% chance of failure. In a situation with a 90% chance of success, there is a 50% chance of failure.

[Karen]

Something weird I just realized about chance cards in FT:  They have apparently tinkered with the chance cards of some of the long-established careers, to make them relevant to the enthusiasms.  I have a Sim in Business career who happens to have 4 points in Music/Dance.  He rolled a chance card that said something like "Matthew (my Sim) is chatting with a coworker about music. <blah blah blah>."  I don't recall what the choices were, but the (positive) response was, "Matthew invites his new friend over!"

I also saw another chance card for a different career (NOT one of the new FT careers) where the penalty for guessing wrong was the loss of enthusiasm points (not skill points) in two different categories.

Have they actually replaced the existing career chance cards with new ones, or are these in addition to the usual chance cards that have always been there?  Does anybody know for sure?

Karen

[Kyna]

They appear to be new cards related to the hobbies, they do not replace the existing career chance cards.  I posted earlier in this thread:

I noticed that my sims (including a teen) are getting chance cards while at work/school based on their hobbies.  I had one where I ignored the work chance card, and they immediately got a hobby one.

[V]

I had a teen criminal get the chance card about whether or not he should help out with the office party decorations. Neither option worked out since the girl who usually does the decorations got mad at him either way. But I was still more focused on how odd it was that a criminal was going to have to worry about office parties.

[quasim]

My teen who is very interested in nature just got a chancecard that he and his buddy had a bug collection at work, and some bugs labels were incorrect. Question: Should he correct the labels himself or tell the friend? I chose that he tells his friend and got an interest-decrease because "his very sensitive co-worker starts yelling at him and accuses him of perfectionism". LOL

[Ellatrue]

Such impatience. Can't I get to PLAY the damn thing first? In Free Time, odds are far less important because of the 80% chance card perk, meaning ANY option you choose is favorable and it strictly comes down to gambling for the best payout, even if the odds were formerly shit.

Still waiting on the Seasons career chance card infos. Can someone more awesome than me please take a look?

[Kyna]

The odds for the Seasons careers are in the first post in this thread.  The results of the Seasons chance cards can be found at Snooty Sims.

I do have a couple of questions about the 80% chance card perk.

- Does it only apply to career chance cards?  Or does it also apply to hobby chance cards?
- How does it affect the 85%/14% chance cards?  Do the odds for those stay at 85%/14%, or does having the perk mean you have less chance of being right on those cards?

[J. M. Pescado]

- Does it only apply to career chance cards?  Or does it also apply to hobby chance cards?

Have not checked.

- How does it affect the 85%/14% chance cards?  Do the odds for those stay at 85%/14%, or does having the perk mean you have less chance of being right on those cards?

With chance cards that offer odds better than 80%, your odds are actually worsened, by default. If there's a custom career that has a 100% or 0% card (meaning there is ONE true answer, the others are wrong!), you can actually fail it as a result. One of the Awesomeshinies fixes this so it will not worsen your odds and acts as a buffer-save instead.

[Ellatrue]

Thanks for the link, Kyna, my main concern isn't with the straight odds themselves, but with whether it is worth the risk at all. I don't mind my sims losing money, or even a skill point, but having a sim fired from a high level job for a stupid chance card makes me furious. Without knowing the risk, it just isn't worth playing.

Interesting, btw, that so many of the adventurer career cards truly suck. It looks like the only good ones are:
grilled cheese forever, enter the cave, hard to starboard, condescension, at least in terms of the choices with acceptable risks v. rewards. Lots of opportunities to be fired, including the second level to the top.

[cyperangel]

Ive done it once already to this thread, and here i go again. Sorry bout this, but its relevant.

I am trying to do the apocalypse challenge, updated to AL and with Mansion rules and all. One of the rules limits the perks i can take for my apoc chars. (Bye bye 80% chance of suces perk) Another one states that you HAVE to choose an option if a chance card comes up while at work.

Since there are a few careers left out of the table, specifically the newest ones, in SOL when i gotta pick a card on those. Sooo, any chance they could be added to the list, even though the perk with 80% succes rate overrules them (if picked that is)?

Many thanks in advance, and i know necromancy is bad. I still practice it though ;-)

[Callista]

*raises zombie thread yet again*

I'm in a similar position, with updated apocalypse rules forbidding picking the 80% chance card perk, so the actual odds of the FT career chance cards do matter.

Hobby chance card outcomes, according to the chance card tester, are:

Code:

		Opt. 1		Good	Bad		Opt. 2		Good	Bad
Arts/Crafts	Say Something	+Hobby	Demoted		Don't		Stalker	-Hobby
		Volunteer	$100	-Hobby		Let Her Do It	+Hobby	-Hobby
		Wear to Work	$100	Demoted		Don't Wear	Card	-Hobby
		Realistic	+Hobby	-Hobby		Abstract	+Hobby	-Hobby
		Glue		+Hobby	-$50		Tape		+Hobby	-Hobby
		Show Teacher	+Hobby	-Hobby		Attempt Answer	+Hobby	-Hobby

Cuisine		Pizza		Stalker	-Hobby		Ethnic Food	+Hobby	-Hobby
		Nectar		Card	-Hobby		Blender		Stalker	-$100
		Cook Burgers	+Hobby	-Hobby		Serve Salad	+$150	-Hobby
		Ketchup		+Hobby	-Hobby		Salt & Pepper	+Hobby	-Hobby
		Make Alone	+Hobby	-Hobby		Have Family	+Hobby	-Hobby
		Make Food	Card	-Hobby		Buy Frozen	+Hobby	Nothing

Film & Lit	Accept		Card	Demoted		Decline		+Hobby	-$100
		Lend It		Promot.	-Hobby		Keep It		+Hobby	-Hobby
		Post It		Stalker	-Hobby		Cube to Cube	+$150	-$150
		Seen It		Stalker	-Hobby		Dismiss It	+Hobby	-Hobby
		Reason		+Hobby	-Hobby		Agree		+Hobby	-Hobby
		Educational	Card	-Hobby		Obsolete	+Hobby	-Hobby

Fitness		Eat the fish!	+Hobby	-Hobby		Skip the salmon	+$150	-Hobby	
		Accept the Chal	Promot.	Demoted		Decline	the Cha	Promot.	Demoted
		Do the walk	+Hobby	-Hobby		Rest the ankle	Promot.	-Hobby	
		Eat the fish!	+Hobby	-Hobby		Skip the salmon	+Hobby	-Hobby	
		Accept the Chal	+Hobby	-Hobby		Decline	the Cha	+Hobby	-Hobby
		Do the rally	+Hobby	-Hobby		Rest the ankle	+Hobby	-Hobby

Games		Show boss	+Hobby	Demoted		Hide from boss	+$200	-$200
		Go		Card	-Hobby		Don't go	Promot.	-Hobby
		Lay down bingo	Promot.	-Hobby		Let boss win	+$150	Demoted
		Take them all	+Hobby	-Hobby		Distribute them	Stalker	-Hobby	
		Game metaphors	+Grades	-Grades		Scientific fact	+Grades	-Hobby
		Kickball	Stalker	-Hobby		Dodgeball	+Hobby	-$150

Music & Dance	Give headphones	Stalker	-Hobby		Lie about music	+$250	Demoted
		Ask for Discoun	Card	-$100		Accept price	+Hobby	-$200
		Join		+Hobby	-$150		Stay seated	+$200	-Hobby
		Cello		+Hobby	-$150		Trumpet		+Hobby	-Hobby
		Dance team	Stalker	-Hobby		Gymnastics team	+Hobby	-Hobby
		Rock out	+$150	-Hobby		Tone it down	+Hobby	-Hobby

Nature		Retrace steps	Card	-Hobby		Alert the pros	Card	-Hobby
		Correct mistke	+Hobby	-Hobby		Tell co-worker	Stalker	-Hobby
		Purchase box	+Hobby	-$150		Pass on it	+Hobby	-Hobby
		Tell on them	+Hobby	-Hobby		Stomp over ther	Stalker	-Hobby
		Pay fees	+Hobby	-Hobby		Start new org	Card	-Hobby
		Organic pestici	+$100	-Hobby		Fend for itself	+$100	-Hobby

Science		Experimental fu	+Hobby	Demoted		Generic fuel	+Hobby	-Hobby
		Go stargazing	+Hobby	-Hobby		Don't go starga	+$150	-$100
		Add pictures	+Hobby	Demoted		Go with basics	+Hobby	-Hobby
		Yes		Stalker	-Hobby		No		+Hobby	-Grades, -$25
		Join		+Hobby	-Hobby		Don't join	+Hobby	-$25
		Buddy		+Hobby	-Hobby		Smarts		+Hobby	-Hobby

Sports		Slide tackle!	+Hobby	Demoted		Stay on feet	+Hobby	-Hobby
		Watch the game	+Hobby	Demoted		Go to the meeti	Promot.	Demoted
		Play the star	+$250	-Hobby		Bench him	+$250	-Hobby
		Slide tackle!	+Hobby	-$150		Stay on feet	+Hobby	-Hobby
		Watch the game	+Hobby	-Hobby		Pay attention	+Hobby	-Hobby
		Fast kid	+Hobby	-Body		Slow kid	+$100	-Hobby

Tinkering	Tinker		+Hobby	-$200		Call support te	Stalker	-Hobby
		No instructions	Card	Demoted		Call company	Promot.	-Hobby
		Play with it	Stalker	-$175		Wait until latr	+Hobby	-Hobby
		Ask now		+Hobby	-Hobby		Ask later	Stalker	-Hobby
		Sneak a look	+Hobby	-Hobby		Don't do it	+Hobby	-Hobby
		Stick to plans	+Hobby	-Hobby		Make exciting	+Hobby	-$150

I have not yet been able to find any analysis of the career chance cards. This would be a lot more useful than the hobby chance cards, but I did go through them with the chance card tester.

Code:

		Opt. 1				Good		Bad		Opt. 2				Good		Bad
Architecture	Continue with this batch	Promotion	Fired		Restart and make a new batch	Promotion	Fired
		Add more bricks			$100		Demoted (L1)	Rebuild the wall		+1 Logic	Demoted (L1)
		Call in the heavy machinery	Promotion (L4)	No Pay		Have the workers start with...	$100		-1 Logic
		Local Government		$100		Demoted (L3)	Wealthy Businessman		$100		Demoted (L3)
		Go to the kitchen		+1 Logic	No Pay		Ask to leave alone		+1 Logic	-1 Charisma
		Help the teammate		+1 Logic	Demoted (L5)	Do not help the teammate	Promoted (L7)	-1 Charisma
		Sacrifice			+1 Charisma	-1 Charisma	Fight for idea			$2000		No Pay
		Hire him!			$3000		-$3000		Don't risk a fine		Promoted (L9)	Demoted (L7)
		Mess up the model		$12000		Fired		Don't touch it			$15000		-$9000
		Use the safe design		$40000		-$25000		Go with the dream!		$50000		-$35000

Dance		Continue the class		Promotion (L2)	Fired		Cancel the class		+1 Body		No Pay
		Volunteer			Promotion (L3)	-1 Body		Let someone else do it		+1 Charisma	Demoted (L1)
		Bust a move			Promotion (L4)	-1 Charisma	Just SimJazzer			Promotion (L4)	-1 Charisma
		Old School			Promotion (L5)	-1 Creativity	New School			+1 Creativity	Demoted (L3)
		Feature (Your sim)		Promotion (L6)	-1 Creativity	Stock Footage			+1 Creativity	Demoted (L4)
		Emotional repression		+1 Creativity	-1 Creativity	Open to interpretation		+1 Charisma	-1 Creativity
		Help other dancer out		Promotion (L8)	-1 Charisma	Stick to tap			+1 Body		-1 Charisma
		Take offer			Promotion (L9)	-1 Creativity	Decline offer			+1 body		-1 Body
		Conservative			+1 Charisma	-1 Charisma	Modern				+1 Creativity	-1 Charisma
		Public Stage			+1 Charisma	-1 Charisma	Private Venue			+1 Body		-1 Charisma

Entertainment	Throw it Back			Promotion (L2)	Fired		Make a Joke			+1 Creativity	-1 Creativity
		Explain the Trick		+1 Charisma	-1 Charisma	Distract with Balloon Animal	+1 Charisma	-1 Charisma
		Fight Back			+1 Body		-1 Body		Offer Peace			+1 Charisma	-1 Charisma
		Repeat				+1 Creativity	-1 Creativity	Improvise			+1 Creativity	-1 Creativity
		Pick it Up			+1 Charisma	-1 Charisma	Ditch the Dummy			+1 Charisma	-1 Charisma
		Agree				+1 Charisma	-1 Charisma	Challenge			+1 Body		-$200
		Ice Cream			+$1000		-1 Charisma	Something Else			+1 Charisma	-1 Body
		Loser				+$2000		-1 Charisma	Winner				+1 Charisma	-1 Body
		Perform				+1 Charisma	-1 Charisma	Cancel				+$10000		-1 Body
		Disappear			+$25000		Demoted (L9)	Make two			+$20000		-$3000


Intelligence	Breakfast			Promotion (L2)	Fired		Family				Promotion (L2)	No Pay
		Find the Spouse			Promotion (L3)	Fired		Follow the Client		Promotion (L3)	Demoted (L1)
		Frozen				Promotion (L4)	Demoted (L2)	Thawed				Promotion (L4)	Demoted (L2), No Pay
		Rush In				Promotion (L5)	-1 Logic	Wait for Backup			+1 Logic	Demoted (L3)
		Now				+1 Mechanical	Demoted (L4)	Wait				Promotion (L6)	Fired
		On Foot				Promotion (L7)	-1 Logic	Take the Car			Promotion (L7)	-1 Mechanical
		Victims				Promotion (L8)	-1 Logic	Locations			+1 Logic	Demotion (L6)
		Study language and culture	Promotion (L9)	Demotion (L7)	Study vampirism research	+1 Mechanical	-1 Mechanical
		Secret Entry			+1 Mechanical	Demotion (L8)	Use Diplomacy			Promotion (L10)	-1 Logic
		Crack Down			+$30000		-$4000		Deny It				+25000		Demotion (L9)

Oceanography	Buy some fish			Promotion (L2)	-$150		Use artificial food		$200		Fired
		Obey the dolphin		+$300		Fired		Keep it in			Promoted (L3)	No Pay
		Tell the truth			Promotion (L4)	No Pay		Replace sea lice		$300		Fired
		Report it			Promotion (L5)	Demoted (L3)	Leave it			Promotion (L5)	-1 Body
		C4				+$500		No Pay		Dynamite			+1 Mechanical	-1 Mechanical
		Self				Promotion (L7)	Demotion (L5)	Head of Research		+$1000		-$800
		Chase the whale			Promotion (L8)	-1 Body		Forget it			+$1000		-$1000
		Give up fishing			Promotion (L9)	Demotion (L7)	Capture the fish		+$4000		-$2000
		Bribe them			Promotion (L10)	Demotion (L9)	Let it pass			+$8000		-$3000
		Run naked			$15000		-1 Body		Skip this assignment 		+$20000		Demoted (L9)