Chance Cards: A Quick Gambler's Guide
striker:
I used JMP's table and created this list.
I will list them from job level 1 to 10.
The keywords will take the highest odds of working(84-85%), or if 50/50 odds, will take the outcome that is least damaging(loss of money before loss of skillpoints before demotion before loss of job).
***--Keywords in which the choice has good odds(84-85%) but in which the bad outcome is "Fired" will have ***'s around them to warn you of a "possible" loss of job.
#----Keywords in which the chance is 50/50 will have #'s in front of them.
()---my comments
Athletic
Become Limpy, Make Excuse, Return Brace, Pass on it, Play Golf, ***Take Pills***, Give Heimlich, Pay Movers, Cut Players, Smile
Business
***Tell Boss***, Tell Boss, Door to Door, ***Have Dinner***, Play to Win, Donate, Sell Shares, Stay, Trust, Buy Trucks
Criminal
Stockbroker, Lie, Keep, Time Share, ***Turnpike***, Look Out, ***Crossbow***, Bribe, #(loss on both is a firing, recommend ignore), #(cash for win and loss of cash for loss)
Culinary
Fire up Burners, ***Teach them Lesson***, Who needs Burgers, Those Damn Kids, Play Fetch, Italian Wedding, Esteemed Eats, #Blend n' Send, Amusement Park, Stay Honest
Law Enforcement
***Call Police***, Study, Wait, Finish Work, Door, Back Door, Really Loud, #(up to you, the loss of 3 skill points is the same for both), Blow whistle, Giant Robot
Medical
***Ask Custodian***, Go on Foot, #Sherpa, Try Later, Treat Bowler, Turn Away, Attend Meeting, ***Finish Quickly***, Research, #Send Away
Military
Kitchen Duty, Stealth, Baguettes, Parachutes, Wire Taps, Contact Base, Whole Squad, Book'em, Explore Ocean, Vaporize
Politics
Get Assistant, ***Grammer Check***, Lobby For, Go As Planned, Vote Yes, Lend Support, Vote Yes, Guilty, Run, NO
Science
#Blue, Let Wiki, Get Help, #Mall, Inform, #Power Inverter, ***Field Work***, Desert Site, Tangible, Green
Slacker
***I Dunno***, On Break, #Duct Tape, #Naughty Llama's, Oldies, ***Substitute***(bad result on both is firing), Bunny, Demand Cash, Reveal All, #streak
edit: changed Meet to Send Away on medical lvl 10
dizzy:
* dizzy-two prints...
Nice. Very handy. :)
Baddmark:
Not sure about RUN in the politics career. I used it twice and had a bad result both times. HIDE (as in Pescado's list) is probably the right one.
J. M. Pescado:
Another factor you've neglected that is important is the actual value of the payout.
If the payout sucks, there's no point in taking ANY risk! Case and point: The Medical option. The last card is 50/50 Meet vs. Send Away. Striker has chosen "Meet" the best choice....but you're wagering the loss of 50K vs. the gain of 3 cooking. This is a lousy wager! 50K is a sizeable chunk of money which, removed at the wrong time, could bankrupt your family and result in the disruption of hired services. 3 cooking is useless! You probably already even have it!
Striker's evaluation is thus incomplete: He doesn't consider also the award as opposed to the penalty, and when this may occur. It's also worth noting that at low levels of a career track, the money received is relatively meager when compared to the daily paycheck. Therefore, taking the money is not necessarily worth the risk of loss of skillpoints or job. He also favors losing skillpoints over demotion, which is flawed: Demotion is relatively harmless in most cases and actually pays better, whereas loss of a skillpoint can be very time-consuming to repair if you had very high skill. Take the demotion over the loss of a skillpoint...especially if you have permanent platinum on your side and are all but guaranteed a daily promotion anyway, or can trivially platinum a sim before work.
Oddysey:
Game theory. Basic game theory. Basically, the value of option A is the average value you'll get when you select it. If it's a 50% option, then it's a standard average between the failure value and the success value. If it's 85% option, it's whichever is 85% likely times .85 plus whichever is 15% times .15. I'm pretty sure I had a document somewhere with everything calculated out . . . hmm. I'll see if I can put one togethor again, combining JMP's data with the payout of the cards, and post the results here.
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