BBC Climate Change Experiment.

[laeshanin]

This is the link for this very cool site... bbc.cpdn.org

I wasn't certain where I could put this so decided on a new topic, but also felt that there's one or two folk on MATY would be interested in trying this for themselves. Hope that hasn't raised too many issues however! 

[ZiggyDoodle]

http://www.michaelcrichton.com/speeches/complexity/complexity.html

The other side of the coin.

[ZephyrZodiac]

Interesting, but the BBC experiment is surely intended to prevent   misinformation by providing accurate information.

I just wish, Laeshanin, that I could get the programme to load on my PC, but it seems to just freeze with the CPU at max.  I tried twice, but the same thing happened both times, so in the end I had to uninstall it.

[syberspunk]

http://www.michaelcrichton.com/speeches/complexity/complexity.html

The other side of the coin.

Thanks for that. It was definately an interesting read. Well... truthfully, due to my short attention span, I kinda got bored by the end, just up until the part where he started to get into the stock market. I skimmed over that stuff until he compared it to human biology, which was neat because it's stuff I already knew, but interesting when compared to a different subject.

Overall, it was pretty interesting what Crichton had to say about Cherynobyl and the sort of government/instituionalized induced hysteria. The idea itself, about complex systems that is, isn't new to me (since my "work" is in the field of biology and medicine, and I've even had experience working at a financial company that deals directly with the stock market), but it was interesting to learn about Yellowstone and the other stuff I was unfamiliar with.

Anyways, I have nothing further to add really. Except that there are similar projects that make use of "unused computing power" such as the well known and somewhat popular SETI (the first one that I ever knew about) and probably lesser known (at least in the non-scientific, non-academic community) Folding. Right now, protein folding is one of the most difficult tasks we have yet to tackle in the scientific (biochemically/medicinally speaking) community. There's been an explosion of information for sure, and we have to deal with a lot of data mining, but actually understanding and using that data hasn't been exactly figured out yet. And currently, protein folding (figuring out how to do it or how to predict it) is one of the major roadblocks to further understanding which could lead to better medicine and better science overall.

Ste

[anelca]

poo...it says it's not for laptops

[ZephyrZodiac]

I imagine that's because they think of laptops as being portable - the data wouldn't be consistent in that case!

[anelca]

oh yeah 
mine never leaves my bed, though i am contemplating taking it to work sometime, but it's only 5 minutes walk away

[ZephyrZodiac]

Well, they don't know that at the BBC!

[ZiggyDoodle]

but the BBC experiment is surely intended to prevent   misinformation by providing accurate information.

Perhaps, depending on who is funding the project.

I am somewhat skeptical that the BBC does not have its own agenda.

[ZephyrZodiac]

Things run by the BBC are generally funded by the licence payers.

And what makes you so sure Michael Crichton doesn't also have his own agenda?

[Wolfee]

http://www.michaelcrichton.com/speeches/complexity/complexity.html

The other side of the coin.

Very, very interesting article. I've heard about the power of sugestion and how specialist try to instill fear in the minds of the masses falsely. I found it interesting how the power of belief in something like a curse could cause a person to die. A Roman Emperior was told he was going to die on a certain date and he did.

Also it seems we make the problems ourselves like at YellowStone Park. We should have just let it take care of itself instead of interfering with nature. We have to learn how to manage complexity and we must eliminate fear and to stop responding to it.

[ZephyrZodiac]

Very, very interesting article. I've heard about the power of sugestion and how specialist try to instill fear in the minds of the masses falsely. I found it interesting how the power of belief in something like a curse could cause a person to die. A Roman Emperior was told he was going to die on a certain date and he did.

Julius Caesar was murdered!    He didn't succumb to the power of suggestion, his "friends" plotted against him and murdered him!  No doubt the soothsayer had heard rumours!

Since the Chernobyl disaster was not able to be viewed by western journalists, they could only really find out anything by listening to rumours - which always grow on every retelling!  I hardly think the then soviet government would have wanted to "misinform" the world - even now, the Russians are more likely to try to cover up the truth than to exaggerate it!

[ZiggyDoodle]

And what makes you so sure Michael Crichton doesn't also have his own agenda?

Crichton, in his author's notes to "State of Fear," states outright that he has no agenda. 

I tend to believe him since his notes call for a new environmental movement with more people working in the actual environment and less behind computer screens (plus many more scientists and far less lawyers); the need for a "nonpartisan, blinded funding mechanism to conduct research..."; the dangers of mixing science and politics, as well as the importance of preserving our natural environments.   

The book is interesting if you don't mind reading fiction about eco-terrorism mixed with factual statistics, charts and graphs (all documented and footnoted).  I found the stats, charts, and graphs more interesting than the storyline or his main character, who has not an ounce of street smarts or common sense.

Lots of tidbits I certainly never was never aware of, such as the fact there are 160,000 glaciers in the world and mass balance data over five years old for only 79 of them; and that the Antarctica continent ice is getting thicker, except for one peninsula which has been melting for the past 6,000 years. 

In addition to the extensive footnotes and URL citations, there's a 30+ page bibliography and his discourse on eugenics in the appendix is worth reading.

[ZephyrZodiac]

I read novels for FUN!  That sounds like hard work - when you reach my age, you've done your bit in that respect!

OK, I agree there is a lot of stuff being said regarding Global warming - as if it never happened before!  In the Middle Ages there were vineyards in monastery grounds in the North of england.  when erik the red discovered North America, it was mistakenly supposed that he sailed further south than new York because he called the new land Vinland - it's now know, of course, that it was Nova scotia or thereabouts (which makes far more sense anyway!)  Greenland was called Greenland because it was GREEN!

At the beginning of the 19th Century there was a mini Ice-Age, the River Thames froze and people went ice-skating and lit bonfires on it!

In the 1960s scientists predicted just the very climate changes we are now experiencing, due to Sunspot activity (or lack of it - can't remember which).

None of these things actually make a good argument as to why the BBC should not make this experiment and involve people from all over the world and their spare computer capacity.  It doesn't matter why it's happening, in this instance - but maybe knowing WHAT exactly the patterns are may help to predict potential disasters and at least evacuate people before they happen!

[J. M. Pescado]

OK, I agree there is a lot of stuff being said regarding Global warming - as if it never happened before!  In the Middle Ages there were vineyards in monastery grounds in the North of england.  when erik the red discovered North America, it was mistakenly supposed that he sailed further south than new York because he called the new land Vinland - it's now know, of course, that it was Nova scotia or thereabouts (which makes far more sense anyway!)  Greenland was called Greenland because it was GREEN!

I thought Greenland was called Greenland as a kind of deliberate misnomer to get people to move there.

But yeah, I ignore all these fear-mongering wussies. It's just like those people who horribly bemoan the awful "terrorists", even though absolutely nothing has happened except for one isolated event, and I hardly think that this improvement was brought about by the vaunted "Homeland Security" measures. If anything, these measures have been more effective at creating terror than anything the terrorists have done.

[ZephyrZodiac]

Well, they just move their field of operations, don't they?  And while so many of the terrorists' home countries still have poor record keeping, especially in isolated areas, it's relatively easy for these people to simply take a new identity and move on!

[anelca]

terrorism happens all the time
one isolated incident? In the States maybe
i live in the Uk where we have had lots over the years, the last being in London back in the summer, and there were many IRA attacks back in the day
also i live in a city where Al Quaeda has/had cells, one at least of which was linked to 9/11

but i agree the fear is largely manufactured and blown out of proportion. my daughter recently spent 3 months in Florida and was treated apallingly by the immigration people at Philadelphia airport. she distinctly got the impression they thought she was out to kill the President. after 3 hours of questioning (fortunately she had 5 hours to wait for her connecting flight) they finally let her go on her way

i would have liked to join this weather thing out of interest, not because i enjoy being alarmed

[laeshanin]

http://www.michaelcrichton.com/speeches/complexity/complexity.html

Interesting. However, whilst it may be true that scaremongery is rife (I take much that is put out in the media with a very large pinch of salt), there is no doubt that there is a bloody great hole in the ozone layer down in Antartica or that the polar ice caps are decreasing at a phenomenal rate. There are other issues closer to home that require examination too, such as the UK barely has a recognisable winter and this has happened in my lifetime - Methusalah I'm not as 47 ain't that old (I hope  ).

I just wish, Laeshanin, that I could get the programme to load on my PC, but it seems to just freeze with the CPU at max.  I tried twice, but the same thing happened both times, so in the end I had to uninstall it.

That's a real shame, Z.Z. It's fascinating and, one hopes, useful. And my CPU reports it's running at max too but I've noticed no lag at all even when running a number of open windows and a game. (The machine I use is good enough but not-shit-off-a-shovel variety.)

I also agree with J.M. about all the nonsense re. terrorism. The "information" so carefully rendered for the hoi-polloi manages to spread panic in the herd thus causing paranoia (which is sometimes good) but in this case is merely counter-productive. Recently in the UK the Government had a small pamphlet sent out to every household concerning the possibility of terrorist attack and what to do should something like this happen. Now, the UK has always been subject to terrorist attacks and I have always been aware of the issue at a certain level, but this little document managed to give me heartburn...I don't go for this stuff generally, but it really gave me pause. It was as if they were expecting a warhead to drop at any minute! Not good.

[ZephyrZodiac]

Funny, isn't it, back in the 2nd WW, so I've been told, (I wasn't quite around then!) the main aim of home government was to keep people's morale high!  Even though every single night there were air raids and whole families being wiped out during the Blitz, it was still considered more important to have people thinking positively than worrying that they might be next!

I might try the program again, but I don't really like having my CPU working that hard!  Seems like there's something that should be done to improve that if they want maximum participation!

[laeshanin]

There's a really good FAQ's section to look at though I haven't managed to decipher some of it... far.too.dumb. I'm gonna go back and take another looksie and report back if I see owt worth the time.

[Assmitten]

And what makes you so sure Michael Crichton doesn't also have his own agenda?

Crichton, in his author's notes to "State of Fear," states outright that he has no agenda. 

I tend to believe him since his notes call for a new environmental movement with more people working in the actual environment and less behind computer screens (plus many more scientists and far less lawyers); the need for a "nonpartisan, blinded funding mechanism to conduct research..."; the dangers of mixing science and politics, as well as the importance of preserving our natural environments.   

This is his agenda, then. Everyone has an agenda. If Michael Crichton had no agenda, he wouldn't have done all that research and written books and that presentation. He would be sitting in his Jurassic Park-funded castle blowing bubbles all day.

I'm not trying to be argumentative, but everyone has an agenda. I hate that statement and my antenna immediately goes up when someone says that. Anyway, thanks to posters for posting both the BBc and the Crichton links.

[Wolfee]

Julius Caesar was murdered!    He didn't succumb to the power of suggestion, his "friends" plotted against him and murdered him!  No doubt the soothsayer had heard rumours!

Oh I was refering to another Roman Emperor whom for the live of me I can't recall his freaking name! I've been searching the internet throughout the day but, alas, their biographys of all of them are pretty long and I've still got many more to read through . I'll find it I'm sure , but it'll take me awhile to find  whom I'm looking for. On the plus side I'm reacquainting myself with their devilish deeds  . And there were plenty 

[ZephyrZodiac]

As far as I recall, Julius Caesar was the only one to be informed by a soothsayer of the date of his death.

[Wolfee]

As far as I recall, Julius Caesar was the only one to be informed by a soothsayer of the date of his death.

Found it!

1. DOMITIAN (51-96 A.D.), Roman emperor

Early astrological predictions had warned that he would be murdered on the fifth hour of September 18, 96 AD. As the date approached, Domitian had many of his closest attendants executed to be on the safe side. Just before midnight marked the beginning of the critical day, he became so terrified that he jumped out of bed. A few hours later he asked the time and was told by his servants (who were conspiring against him) that it was the sixth hour. Convinced that the danger had passed, Domitian went off to take a bath. On the way he was informed that his niece's steward, Stephanus, was waiting for him in the bedroom with important news. When the emperor arrived, Stephanus handed him a list of conspirators and then suddenly stabbed him in the groin. Domitian put up a good fight, but he was overcome when four more conspirators appeared. He died as predicted, on the fifth hour of September 18, 96 AD.


Well he was murdered but still, his own actions did play a part of his death by murder. He should have stayed in bed, lol.  You see, if only he didn't believe so much in it and tell people he was going to die on that date he wouldn't have.

I know,  I'm stretching it but I did know there was another Roman Emperor besides Julius Caesar  whose death was perdicted . But I was wrong about the other part

For other timely deaths read this: http://www.canongate.net/Lists/Death/12TimelyDeaths

[ZephyrZodiac]

But those who murdered him were simply using the prediction for their own ends!  I didn't know about this one,  but it would seem that the pattern of Caesar's death was being copied.

A prediction of death by a soothsayer would have been wonderful indeed if he had died on a specified date three years later from proven natural causes!  (And very few Roman emperors managed to do that!